Matched Betting Guide Page 4
Lay Stake Calculations:
Here are some screenshots of the typical types of programs you can use when working out the lay stake for the bets (available on the download page)
This is a typical matched-betting spreadsheet, which is very useful as it allows the figures all to be typed in to the document, and it will work out the Lay Stake needed for the bet. This is the exact amount that you should use when you Lay your bet at the Exchange, as it will enable highest profit from the bet overall.
The good thing about using a spreadsheet for the matched betting is that they are very flexible, and equations and such can easily be integrated onto the sheet. Another reason why they get used is that they allow the user to input their own figures into the cells and so it works it all out for you – and then when you have sorted out your own bet, you can even save the page for future reference. Then you can open up another spreadsheet which accumulates all the bets which you have made, giving you a running total of your profit/loss, and a very handy database of all the matched bets you have made for any necessary future reference.
Free Stake - The value of the first qualifying bet which you will be making.
Stake Forfeit - If the bet is a free bet, it might be "Stake not returned". If so you will need to enter the value here.
Back Odds - These are the odds for the first bet, at the Bookmakers.
Back Commission - On rare occasions you will find a bookmaker which charges a commission when you back a bet.
Back Return - This is the return you stand to receive from the first bet at the bookies, if it wins.
Lay Odds - These are the odds available to lay the same outcome at the Exchange.
Lay Commission - Most Exchanges charge a commission on any lays made (usually %5 at Betfair).
Lay Risk - This is the money which you would have to pay out at the Exchange if the lay event happens.
Back Profit - This is the profit you would make from the first bet, if you win at the Bookmakers.
Lay Profit - This is the profit you would make from the Lay made at the Exchange, if that event doesn't happen.
Lay Stake - This is the amount which you will need to put down as your Lay stake at the Exchange.
Important: Try to read and understand all of the terms above, as they will often be used in the spreadsheets and calculation programs that are used to work out bet stakes and profits from different bets. Also make sure you are familiar with SNR bets (stake not returned) because these types of bets are often used by bookmakers, and if you don't work this into the equation you could miss out on some profits.
Stake Not-Returned Explanation:
When Bookmakers offer free-bets, most of the time they will be stake non-returnable. This is because people can simply use this free bet on a certainty, such as Chelsea to beat Rushden and Diamonds. They would then receive the entire free-bet back, aswell as any other winnings. However when the stake isn't returned on a bet like this, they would hardly earn any money from it. For example if the odds on Chelsea to beat Rushden and Diamonds were 1.2 and you had a £20 stake-not returned bet and you placed the £20 on Chelsea to win, you would only receive £4 back. Obviously if the stake was returned you would have earnt £24.
The Bookmakers don't want people to be able to do this, which is why the free bets or bonus bets are usually not stake returned. However, the best way around this is to bet on something with high odds when it comes to using a free-bet.
For example, say you had gone the other way and used the free £20 bet on Rushden and Diamonds to beat Chelsea at odds of 9. You would have won £160, and this doesn't include our original stake. This is a very good return on the free-bet, and is a lot better than the £4 you would have won if you backed Chelsea. Obviously it is very unlikely that Rushden and Diamonds would have won the match in the first place, but aslong as you remember to Lay the bet at the Exchange, you would have unlocked most of the free bet as your own money (aslong as you found odds similar, or lower, when laying the same outcome at the Exchange).
From the matched bet above,you can see that the Lay Stake needed to match this bet is £10.29 and that there is an overall closeness of %97.79. The Lay Odds in the situation above are lower than the Back odds, by 0.05. This would normally form an Arb*, but due to the %5 Lay Commission, there is no arb. Often when you place a qualifying bet, and then lay it out, you will make a small loss aslong as you have odds which are reasonbly close together. However on the odd occasion you will get Lay odds which are lower than the Back odds. This means that no matter what happens in the event*, you will come out with a profit. Often though you only ever make a small loss when matching the bet, but this is okay because by matching the bet in the first place you will be unlocking a free-bet or bonus. The free-bet or bonus is the earner, and you can usually gain about %80 of the free-bet as your own money (aslong as you match the bet properly).
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